1--The Level of Overall Economic Activity


Real GDP for the Last 10 Years*
Real GDP Per Capita for the Last 10 Years*
Real GDP Growth Per Year for the Last 10 Years
2006: 49.60 billion USD
2008: $108,577.35
2008: -1.3% growth
2007: 53.74 billion USD 
2009: $101,939.62
2009: -4.4% growth
2008: 53.06 billion USD
2010: $104,965.30
2010: 4.9% growth
2009: 50.74 billion USD
2011: $105,264.75
2011: 2.5% growth
2010: 53.21 billion USD
2012: $102,404.61
2012: -0.4% growth
2011: 54.56 billion USD
2013: $103,721.75
2013: 3.7% growth
2012: 54.37 billion USD
2014: $105,658.52
2014: 4.3% growth
2013: 56.36 billion USD
2015: $107,235.27
2015: 3.9% growth
2014: 59.61 billion USD
2016: $107,479.51
2016: 2.4% growth
2015: 61.32 billion USD
2017: $106,519.59
2017: 1.5% growth
2016: 63.21 billion USD
2018: $107.243.23
2018: 2.6% growth


*Source: “Real GDP for the Last 10 Years”
**Source: “Real GDP Per Capita for the Last 10 Years”
***Source: “Real GDP Growth Per Year for the Last 10 Years”
Source: “Luxembourg Unemployment Rate."

Source: “Luxembourg Inflation Rate."

Source: “Luxembourg Current Account Balance"

I think that Luxembourg's place in the business cycle is in the very beginning of a recession, or the moment of the peak right before it becomes a recession. Although their Real GDP continues to grow, I believe this because of the country's unemployment trends, inflation trends, and current account balance. Over the last 10 years, the countries unemployment rate and inflation rate have been on a steady upwards trajectory, which doesn't bode well for the future of the economy. If Luxembourg has a population of un or underemployed people with increasingly worthless money, consumption will rapidly decrease and the government will be forced to step in to save the economy. If the unemployment rate and inflation rate continues to rise for the next 5-10 years, this speculation could become a reality. Along with this, Luxembourg's current account balance is on a downward trend, which means they are becoming increasingly reliant on imports. If this trend continues, Luxembourg's economy could face more damage since they will not be buying enough local products to support their economy. If I were you, I would keep an eye on Luxembourg's economy and well-being, since if I am correct they will enter a recession in the next 5-10 years. 

“Luxembourg Current Account Balance.” Luxembourg Current Account Balance - Economy,
2020, www.indexmundi.com/luxembourg/current_account_balance.html.

“Luxembourg Inflation Rate 1960-2020.” MacroTrends, 2020,
www.macrotrends.net/countries/LUX/luxembourg/inflation-rate-cpi.

“Luxembourg Real GDP by Year.” Multpl, 2020,

“Luxembourg Real GDP Growth, 1980-2018.” Knoema, 2019,
knoema.com/atlas/Luxembourg/Real-GDP-growth
“Luxembourg Real GDP Growth, 1980-2018.” Knoema, 2019,
knoema.com/atlas/Luxembourg/Real-GDP-growth.

“Luxembourg Unemployment Rate 1991-2020.” MacroTrends, 2020, 
www.macrotrends.net/countries/LUX/luxembourg/unemployment-rate.

Statista Research Department. “Luxembourg: Real GDP per Capita 2008-2018.” Statista, 30









Comments

  1. Dr. Q April 1, 2020 at 7:51 AM

    For citing the sources of statistics, you can just make an in-text citation under the figure, like "Source: knoema.com" or "Source: macrotrends.net".

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dr. Q April 1, 2020 at 8:00 AM

    Your analysis and evaluation of the situation is reasonable. Typically, unemployment and inflation trend in opposite directions. When they both rise together, as they did in the US in the 1970s, it's called "stagflation" and definitely is suggestive of recession. Although unemployment is still quite low in absolute terms, the growth rate seems to be tapering off.

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